RUSSIAN STRATEGY: IS THERE ONE?
LIKE BOSNIA 1993: SNATCHING DEFEAT FROM JAWS OF VICTORY?
On Friday, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky admitted that his country’s forces have been suffering at least 50 casualties a day.
He claimed, however, that the Russian side was losing several times more. Zelensky’s comments came soon after (Russian Defense Minister) Shoigu’s announcement that Russia’s forces have lost 5,937 troops since the beginning of the military offensive. According to the minister, the losses on the Ukrainian side were ten times higher, at an estimated 61,000 soldiers dead.
BANALITY OF DEATH
The preceding was an excerpt from daily news for Sep 24. It boggles one’s mind how casually the leaders of Ukraine and Russia talk about the losses of their soldiers. Like they are counting sacks of potatoes. Yet each one of those deaths leaves a grieving family somewhere in those two countries. And inspires thousands more to be against this war.
No wonder there is currently an exodus of military service-age people from Russia. Here in Belgrade, for example, one hears now Russian in the streets more than any other foreign language. That has never happened before despite the traditionally friendly relations between the two countries.
RUSSIAN STRATEGY: IS THERE ONE?
Given the military superiority of Russia, one has to wonder why its leaders have been reluctant to use it. For, time is not a friend of Russia. The longer this war lasts, the more help Ukraine is likely to get. And the more there will be resistance to the war in Russia.
I am not alone in questioning the Russian war strategy if there is one at all. The former longtime Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi believes Moscow had initially planned to take control of Kiev “in a week,” replace Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and his government with “decent people,” and leave the capital “in another week.”
In an interview with the Italian RAI Radio, he also said he does not understand why Russian troops are now “spread around Ukraine” when they “should have only stuck around Kiev.” He also claimed Moscow’s forces met “an unexpected level of resistance,” which was reinforced by Western weapon deliveries, Italian media quoted him as saying.
LIKE BOSNIA 1993: SNATCHING DEFEAT FROM THE JAWS OF VICTORY
This reminds me of the situation in the first two years of the Bosnian war. Initially, the Bosnian Serb army had a vast military superiority over the Muslims. In 1993, they could could have taken Sarajevo but for Radovan Karadzic’s order to halt the offensive on Mount Bjelasnica and Igman. Upon receiving the order, the Serb general (Mladic) reportedly slammed his cap to the ground in disgust, and yelled: “F… them all!” (in reference to the politicians).
The same thing happened a little over a year later when the Serbs were about to take Bihac. This time General Manojlovic was forced to react the same way (see my Bosnia War Diary – July 1994 – https://www.truthinmedia.org/Vignettes/Bosnia-diary-94.html).
We all know what happened in the end. The Muslims kept getting more and more military supplies. They already had a superiority in the numbers of soldiers. And when NATO entered the war on their side and started bombing the Serbs in 1995, that was the end of the war. The Serbs had managed to wrest a defeat from the jaws of victory.
Will the same thing happen in Russia?
It sure looks like it. It’s either that or a nuclear war.
Everybody knows that the best way to kill a snake is to cut off its head. By withdrawing from Kiev and allowing Zelensky to spout off against around the world, Putin weaponized his enemy. That’s something that only someone stupid, mad or treasonous would do.
Which of the three is he?
THE AMERICAN STRATEGY IS WORKING BEAUTIFULLY
Meanwhile, the American strategy is working beautifully. Europe is on its knees economically. Resistance against Putin is growing at home. The biggest impact of the Ukrainian war on the US economy is the high inflation.
But that’s mostly because of the greed of oil and gas companies rather than due to shortage of supplies. And since the Fed have been raising interest rates steadily, even the inflation will be soon brought under control.
Meanwhile, the life in America goes on as normal. The baseball season is nearly over. The football season is in its full swing. The stomachs are full. There is plenty of beer. The US dollar is strong. What’s there to complain about?
Time is on America’s side.