INDUSTRIAL ERA CREATIONS, LIKE NATION STATES, ARE FACING EXTINCTION
Regardless of who “wins” in the Ukraine war, that country will never again look the same again
Following the end of World War I, the winning powers thrashed out the new borders in Europe. Out of these protracted negotiations in late 1918, the Versailles treaty minted out a a slew of new countries, such as Yugoslavia., Ukraine, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova. It also enlarged the countries like Romania and reduced the losers in the Great War – Germany, Austria, Bulgaria.
But the biggest geopolitical change took place not at the negotiating table in France but at gunpoint in Russia. The Bolshevik revolution redrew the borders of the Russian empire and created a slew of new republics. One of the winners in that process was Ukraine. Take a look at the evolution of that “country” from being just a region in the Russian empire to becoming the second biggest Soviet republic.
It should be also noted that in the 17th century Ukraine was just a small region within the Russian empire. In 1850, it did not even exist by that name. The area of conglomeration of various Russian provinces (“oblasti”) – see the maps below.
Less than 20 years later, the borders in Europe were again being written in blood. After World War II, the borders of Germany shrank further, and a new country – East Germany – was added to the Soviet Warsaw pact.
Romanian ex-FM calls for Ukraine to be broken up
Well, now an EU state’s former top diplomat is calling on Kiev to cede some of its territory to neighboring states. Romania’s ex-foreign minister, Andrei Marga made the explosive remark on Saturday as he presented his new book ‘The Fate of Democracy’ at the Alba Transylvania book fair.
“Ukraine exists in unnatural borders. It should cede Transcarpathia to Hungary, Galicia to Poland, Bukovina to Romania, Donbass and Crimea to Russia. These are the territories of other countries.“
Kiev could lose up to half of its territory, Hungarian PM reportedly said
The former Romanian foreign minister wasn’t the only one who predicted land grab from Ukraine after the war with Russia ends.
The Hungarian leader, Viktor Orban, allegedly told his supporters that he believed Ukraine may end up losing between one third and one half of its territory due to the conflict with Russia, RFE/RL reported on Friday, citing participants of the meeting in the village of Kotcse on September 10.
Orban again lashed out at EU sanctions imposed on Russia over its military operation in Ukraine, saying the bloc had shot itself in the foot with those curbs.
The energy crisis, which occurred as a result of those restrictions, could force 40% of European industry to shut down this winter, he reportedly added. The eurozone and the EU itself could cease to exist by 2030, Orban was quoted as saying.
But that was hearsay. Orban has so far refrained from such bombastic comments in public. For now, these EU countries are publicly toeing the line and not clamoring for return of their former territories. But once the EU starts to disintegrate, as it invariably will, then it will be each man for himself. And Europe, if it survives the next “great war” (WW III?), may once again look similar to the way it did at the start of the 20th century.
A bunch of small countries loosely confederated, trying to enjoy their own freedom and autonomy without being dictated to from above by anyone. But then, maybe even that is Eurotopia.
DISINTEGRATION OF UKRAINE IS INEVITABLE, AS IS THAT OF THE EU
The reason this process of disintegration is inevitable is not the Ukraine war. It matters not who wins. Things will never be the same again as before Feb 24, 2022.
The reason is that centralized bureaucratic structures created during the industrial era have become unwieldy and unworkable. As this writer first predicted as far back as 1995 (see €UROTOPIA: UNITED STATES OF EUROPE).
It was on April 19, 1995, over 27 years ago now, that I published an editorial about the merits of the “United States of Europe.” I called it “Eurotopia” (not my original term).
It was an idea advanced by two professors – C. Northcote Parkinson of Britain (1970s) and Prof A.H. Heineken of the Netherlands (early 1990s). And based on research by the Austrian sociologist Leopold Kohr from the 1950s.
Here’s premise of that theory in a nutshell:
It is always bigness, and only bigness, which is the problem of existence – social, as well as physical.” Prof Kohr concluded. So we must “cut down the substances and organisms which have outgrown their natural limits.”Leopold Kohr, 1957
Three years earlier, without being aware of the foregoing, I argued the very same point with the then chairman of EDS, Les Alberthal. I urged him to break up his company. Because EDS, then the largest IT services company in the world, started by Ross Perot in the 1960, was becoming “Unworkable, Unwieldy, Unpopular…” – to borrow the adjectives from this report’s title. Much like the EU today.
“Bigness in business has become a liability rather than an advantage,” I said. I compared a successful modern (1992) services business enterprise to an amoeba – which splits up before becoming too big (and, therefore, inefficient).
Alberthal tried to break up the company but was eventually replaced by other industrial centrists. So EDS bit the dust. The company was swallowed up eventually by HP in 2008, another industrial era dinosaur now on its way to extinction.
That – is what also lies ahead for the European Union, another industrial era top-down creation. Another dinosaur.
PUTIN ISSUES A STERN WARNING: “I AM NOT BLUFFING”
In his televised address today, the Russian president warned the West that Russia will use any means at its disposal to defend itself and ensure its territorial integrity, up to and including the deployment of its nuclear arsenal, if attacked with weapons of mass destruction. Putin stressed that he was “not bluffing.”
The president added that “stopping those who vie for world dominance and threaten to dismember and enslave our homeland” is part of Russia’s national tradition, and that the Ukraine crisis is no different to what the nation has faced in the past. (see RT.COM).
Putin also said that referendums on joining Russia will be held in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, as well as the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of eastern Ukraine on September 23-27 – events that will come as Russia continues its special military operation in Ukraine. (see Sputnik).